Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry

This paper investigates the factors associated with foreign direct investment “surges” and “stops”, defined as sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of foreign direct investment inflows to the developing world and differentiated based on whether these events are led by waves in greenfield investments or mergers and acquisitions. Greenfield-led surges and stops occur more frequently than mergers-and-acquisitions-led ones and different factors are associated with the onset of the two types of events. Global liquidity is the factor significantly and positively associated with a surge, regardless of its kind, while a global economic growth slowdown and a surge in the preceding year are the main factors associated with a stop. Greenfield-led surges and stops are more likely in low-income countries and mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges are less likely in resource-rich countries than elsewhere in the developing world. Global growth accelerations and increases in financial openness, domestic economic and financial instability are associated with mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges but not with greenfield-led ones. These results are particularly relevant for developing countries where FDI flows are the major type of capital flows and suggest that developing countries’ macroeconomic vulnerability increases following periods of increased global liquidity. As countries develop they typically become more exposed to merger-and-acquisition-led surges, which are more likely than greenfield-led surges and stops to be short-lived and associated with domestic macroeconomic policies.     

Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: Evidence from dynamic models for binary panel data

This paper builds on existing studies on households’ financial distress and provides new evidence on the determinants of financial hardship in Italy and its persistence over time. It suggests a quantitative definition of financial distress based on the distribution of net wealth, and tests whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulty is persistent over time, using (random and fixed effects) dynamic models for binary panel data. The analysis exploits the longitudinal component of the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth for the period 1998–2006. Its results show that, after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity, past values of the outcome variable play a large part in explaining the probability of experiencing financial distress. In addition, the probability of financial vulnerability decreases with income and greater sophistication of the household portfolio and, at least in one of the model specifications, increases in areas with higher unemployment rates.     

The growth of China and India: implications and policy reform options for Malaysia

This study explores the trade‐related impacts of rapid growth of China and India on the Malaysian economy and evaluates policy options to better position Malaysia to take advantage of these changes. Higher growth in China and India is likely to raise Malaysia's national income and to expand Malaysia's natural resource and agricultural exports, while putting downward pressure on exports from some manufacturing and service sectors. Increases in the quality and variety of exports from China and India are likely to increase substantially the overall gains to Malaysia. The expansion of the natural resource sectors and the contraction of manufacturing and services reflect a Dutch‐disease effect that will raise the importance of policies to facilitate adaptation to the changing world economy and improve competitiveness. Most‐favoured‐nation (MFN) liberalisation would increase welfare, and, by increasing competitiveness, raise output and exports of key industries. Preferential liberalisation with India and completely free trade with China would provide greater market access gains than MFN reform, but neither would be as effective in increasing income as MFN liberalisation, and free trade agreements would lead to greater competitive pressure on many of Malaysia's industries than MFN liberalisation. Increased investments in education and infrastructure could boost manufacturing and services sectors in Malaysia, while improving trade logistics would benefit sectors with high transport costs, including the agricultural and resource‐based industries.     

Interbank market liquidity and central bank intervention

We develop a simple model of the interbank market where banks trade a long term, safe asset. When there is a lack of opportunities for banks to hedge idiosyncratic and aggregate liquidity shocks, the interbank market is characterized by excessive price volatility. In such a situation, a central bank can implement the constrained efficient allocation by using open market operations to fix the short term interest rate. It can be constrained efficient for banks to hoard liquidity and stop trading with each other if there is sufficient uncertainty about aggregate liquidity demand compared to idiosyncratic liquidity demand.     

Phasing Out Market Mechanisms in the Italian National Health Service

The Italian National Health Service introduced quad-markets, regionalization, and managerialism in the 1990s. Under quasi-markets, large providers have been separated from purchasers and funded by 'activity'—the quantity, mix, and possibly appropriateness of services provided. Under regionalization, each of Italy's 21 regional governments is able to design its own funding arrangements. The regions have generally been trying to mitigate the effects of quasi-markets and are now increasingly 'governing' them. The system is producing some desirable results, including a shift from ordinary to same-day hospitalizations and a reduction in length of stay. Hospital admissions increased initially, but only where the regions encouraged this. Financial effects are more controversial.     

Project analysis using a linear approach (P.A.U.L.A.)

We define a general model (called PAULA) for the valuation, optimal management and selection among mutually exclusive safe projects. By exploiting the formal and financial features of the associated linear problems (primal and dual), we put forward two proposals to define an optimal internal financial law (IFL). They may be used to reduce the multiplicity of the IFLs and to avoid economically arbitrary outcomes.Research projectsCariplo andMurst.     

M&A Operations and Performance in Banking

This paper investigates whether M&A operations influence the performance of banks. Using a sample of 714 deals involving EU acquirers and targets located throughout the world over the period 1991–2005, we investigate whether M&A operations are associated with improved performance (using both standard accounting ratios and cost and alternative profit X-efficiency measures). Despite the extensive and ongoing consolidation process in the banking industry, we find that M&A operations are associated with a slight deterioration in return on equity, cash flow return and profit efficiency and with a marked improvement in cost efficiency. Hence, the improvements in cost efficiency appear to be transferred to bank clients. These changes in performance are directly attributable to the M&A operations, and would not have occurred in their absence. Moreover, these changes exhibit a particularly negative trend for cross-border deals to testify the importance of geographical relatedness in order to achieve better post-M&A performance. The environmental and bank-characteristics that make a deal successful or unsuccessful are finally identified.     

Imperfect Competition and Total Factor Productivity Growth

This article examines the role of imperfect competition in determining total factor productivity growth (TFPG) by bringing together a New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) model and the TFPG model of Good, Nadiri and Sickles (1999). Application of the integrated model to 1973–1992 data from 29 food processing industries revealed that, overall, changes in markups, economies of scale, and demand growth contributed positively to TFPG while the disembodied technical change was a negative contributor. Furthermore, the factors underlying the TFPG estimates are interactive and their net effects are starkly different from the conventional Solow (1957) residual TFPG measures, underscoring the need to account for imperfect competition, returns to scale, and demand growth in analyses of this type.     

Implementation by Iterative Dominance and Backward Induction: An Experimental Comparison

We report experimental results on the relative performance of simultaneous and sequential versions of the Abreu-Matsushima mechanism. Under the simultaneous version, subjects typically use undominated strategies, but apply only a limited number of iterations of dominance. Consequently the unique strategy surviving iterative elimination of strictly dominated strategies is rarely observed. Under the sequential version, subjects also typically use undominated strategies, but apply only a limited number of steps of backward induction. Thus the backward induction outcome is also rarely observed. The sequential version results in fewer observed outcomes corresponding to the predicted outcome than the simultaneous version. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number(s): C72, C92.